The hottest overall demand is low, and the plastic

The overall demand is sluggish and the plastic shock pattern

in the first half of 2015, the shock of PP and l became stronger after short-term adjustment. China's domestic demand for steady growth has increased, and domestic monetary easing has provided macro support for the plastic rebound; The United States crude oil futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. In the first half of the year, the centralized inspection of petrochemical enterprises' devices gave plastics from the spot. China's economic policy in the second half of the year and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in the second half of the year are expected to be the key to the trend of the plastic market in the second half of the year. Domestic monetary easing pattern will continue. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the second half of the year is rising, and the rise of the dollar has put pressure on commodities including crude oil; Domestic petrochemical units resumed operation, the overall downstream demand was sluggish, and the fundamental pressure gradually increased. It is expected that the pattern of plastic shocks in the second half of the year

I. review of L and PP futures in the first half of the year

in the first half of the year, the trend of L and PP futures markets was basically the same. In January, affected by the sharp fall in international crude oil prices and the sluggish demand in the downstream market, the main forces of L and PP were weak and downward. Petrochemical enterprises reduced prices and promoted sales before the Spring Festival, but the wait-and-see mood was obvious in the decline in the downstream market, and the market focused on the low popularity of LWA official account. In February, as crude oil prices rebounded and domestic petroleum and petrochemical enterprises entered the inspection intensive period in the first half of the year, PP and l futures prices rebounded for three months. During this period, due to the low Petrochemical inventory and the centralized preparation of downstream goods after the Spring Festival, PP used less additives and l futures once had a short-term forced market. In the rebound process, the main force of l was composed of the base, rocker arm conditioning mechanism, automatic hammer lifting mechanism, anti secondary impact mechanism, monitoring system and other parts during the year. The low 7735 rebounded to 10385, with a rebound range of 34.2%, while the main force of PP rebounded from 6871 to 9927, with a rebound range of 44.47%. PP and l futures returned to the level near $80 of crude oil in October last year. In May, after a short-term correction, the main players of PP and l sorted out the range. On the one hand, the momentum of the continued rise of international oil prices above $60 was significantly weakened, and the cost support of PP and l fell. On the other hand, as petrochemical enterprises' devices resumed driving one after another, the spot supply in the plastic market gradually recovered, and the fundamentals of plastic spot turned from long to short. However, in the pre prime stage, the market plastic inventory was relatively limited, and petrochemical enterprises had no intention to significantly reduce the ex factory price, The long and short performances of PP and l in the futures market are deadlocked, and the trading volume has remained at a low level in the recent stage

II. Analysis of raw material market

1. International crude oil trend

the trend of international crude oil futures in the first half of the year is divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle of March, the price of U.S. crude oil futures fluctuates around $50. From the middle of March to the middle of May, it experienced a wave of rapid rise, and the international oil price returned to around $60. From the middle of May to now, the international oil price fluctuated slightly around $60

in the first quarter, the international oil price oscillated at a low level, the output of Russia and OPEC remained at a high level, and many institutions continuously lowered their crude oil price estimates, while China's economic data was poor. The IMF [Weibo] lowered its economic expectations for the first time this year, making the market worried about international crude oil demand. During this period, although the number of drilling wells in the United States continued to decline, the crude oil inventory was still increasing rapidly, putting pressure on the crude oil market. In the middle and late March, international oil prices began to rebound. On the one hand, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen led to a rapid rebound in oil prices. On the other hand, the continuous decline in the number of U

III. supply and demand analysis of PP and PE

1. Supply side analysis

the total output of PE in 2015 was 4.109 million tons, up 26% from 3.261 million tons in the same period last year. Among them, LLDPE output was 1425600 tons, up only 0.3% year-on-year from 1421000 tons in the same period last year. From the perspective of pe net import, the total net import of PE in 2015 was 3.3299 million tons, up 5.6% from 3.1506 million tons in the same period last year, and the external dependence was 44.76%. From the perspective of PE apparent consumption, the total monthly apparent consumption in 2015 was 7.4389 million tons, up 16% from 6.4115 million tons in the same period last year

in 2015, the total output of PP (primary shape polypropylene, ethylene propylene copolymer, and other primary shape propylene copolymers) was 5.1958 million tons, up 21.2% from 4.284 million tons in the same period last year. From the perspective of PP net import, the cumulative net import of PP in 2015 was 1171400 tons, a decrease of 7.4% from 1263900 tons in the same period last year. From the perspective of PP apparent consumption, the total monthly apparent consumption in 2015 was 6.368 million tons, up 14.7% from 5.5478 million tons in the same period last year

2. Demand side analysis

the latest data shows that the total output of plastic products in China in 2015 was 42.987 million tons, and the cumulative output last month was 42.476 million tons, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year. Among the total output of plastic products in 2015, the output of plastic products was 21.493 million tons, the output of plastic film was 3.966 million tons, the output of agricultural film was 752000 tons, the output of foam plastic was 626000 tons, the output of plastic artificial leather and synthetic leather was 990000 tons, and the output of daily plastic products was 1.584 million tons

IV. future research and judgment

China's economic policy in the second half of the year and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in the second half of the year are expected to become the key to the trend of the plastic market in the second half of the year. July and August are the off-season of plastic demand. With the completion of domestic and foreign device maintenance, the supply of PP and PE is expected to increase, and the fundamentals of plastic spot are short. It is worth pointing out that the loose domestic macro monetary policy will support domestic commodities, and the probability of PP and l maintaining range shocks is high; In September, plastic entered the peak consumption season, and downstream demand is expected to recover. The Fed's interest rate hike will become the focus of market attention. The strong expectation of the US dollar and the suppression of international crude oil may bring adjustment pressure to the futures market. PP and l in the fourth quarter do not rule out the possibility of another sharp correction

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